Question: The approach used in Problem 1 (e) led to a disastrous prediction in the 1936 presidential election, in which Franklin Roosevelt defeated Alfred Landon by

The approach used in Problem 1

(e) led to a disastrous prediction in the 1936 presidential election, in which Franklin Roosevelt defeated Alfred Landon by a landslide. A Landon victory had been predicted by the Literary Digest. The magazine based its prediction on the preferences of a sample of voters chosen from lists of automobile and telephone owners.

(a) Why do you think the Literary Digest’s prediction was so far off?

(b) Has anything changed between 1936 and now that would make you believe that the approach used by the Literary Digest would work better today?

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