The following table shows demand for kidney transplants for the past 7 years at the fictitious Crescent General Hospital:

1. Compute 3-month moving average forecasts for years 4 to 8.

2. Compute forecasts for years 4 to 8 using exponential smoothing for two different values of α, 0.5 and 0.7. Assume F₄ = 51.

3. Use the trend-adjusted exponential smoothing method to forecast for years 4 to 8 with α = 0.5 and β = 0.2. Assume that the forecast for year 4 (F₄) is 51 and the trend factor for year 4 is T₄ = 0.

4. Use MSE as the forecast error measure to determine which of the four forecasting techniques is superior.

Transcribed Image Text:

Year 6. Kidney Transplants 47 51 38 42 58 60 63