What do you do? (Select one of the four options below and explain your answer.)

1. Ignore the new analytics forecast and use a conservative approach to reduce inventory.

2. Try and understand the planning team’s reasoning for an illogical looking forecast. Then apply your own judgment and “correct” the forecast.

3. Believe the forecast is accurate and immediately start production at full capacity.

4. Believe the forecast may be accurate but don’t commit your entire production capacity immediately. Wait until the fourth month (July) to confirm the uptake in demand. If actual demand is greater than the capacity, try to cover production using contract manufacturers.