Consider using a simple moving average model Experiment with models using five weeks and three weeks past data The past data in each region are given below (week 21 is the week before week 1 in the table 22 is two weeks before week 1. etc.). Evaluate the forecasts that would have been made over the 13 weeks using the overall (at the end of the 13 weeks) mean absolute deviation mean absolute percent error, and tracking signal as criteria.

WEEK Atlanta Boston Chicago Dallas LA Total -5 45 62 62 42 43 254 -4 38 18 22 35 40 153 -3 30 48 72 40 54 244 -2 58 40 44 64 46 252 -1 37 35 48 43 35 198