For the event of favorable forecast (F), compute the expected net profit of the new product: ENPFN
Question:
For the event of favorable forecast (F), compute the expected net profit of the new product:
ENPFN = P(S|F)(10) + P(N|F)(-5)
Expected value with favorable information = EVwFI = max (ENPFN, ENPE)
A major use of decision tree analysis is to estimate the expected value of information. We will use the following simple example to illustrate the application process.
In this case, a CEO needs to decide whether to invest $5 million to improve an existing product, which is sure to yield a profit of $7 million, or to develop a new product, which will yield a profit of $15 million if successful or $0 if not successful. A consultant offers to conduct a market forecast for the new product for a fee of $0.5 million. Should the CEO hire the consultant and in which product should the CEO invest?
A 2-stage tree shown below describes the decision process: the first stage is to decide whether to acquire the information; the second stage is to decide which product to invest. For simplicity, we assume that the CEO is risk-neutral and wants to maximize the expected net profit.
Operations Management Creating Value Along the Supply Chain
ISBN: 978-0470525906
7th Edition
Authors: Roberta S. Russell, Bernard W. Taylor