Q1. Forecast for period # 13 using the three methods as shown in the table below. Find MAD and MAPE for each method. Which method is giving you the forecast? Why?

Q2. The average selling price and sales for the last six periods is shown below. Use regression analysis to forecast sales for the next period with 99% confidence assuming a selling price of $11. Is your model significant?

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Period Y 24 25 27 24 20 21 23 28 24 26 24 29 |1 2 13 14 6 7 8 19 Sales 10 11 12 Results Four period Simple Exponential Smoothing Naïve Method Moving Average Method Alpha=0.7 Forecast-Average Sales Forecast Error Error Forecast Error %Error Forecast Error Error Y cap Y -YI cap 25.000 5.000 24.000 3.000 23.000 0.000 22.000 6.000 23.000 1.000 24.000 2.000 25.250 1.250 25.500 3.500 25.750 2.719 Forecast MAD Y -Y APE Y cap cap 24 1.000 24.700 2.300 26.310 2.310 25.000 24.693 4.693 14.286 21.408 0.408 0.000 21.122 1.878 21.429 22.437 5.563 4.167 26.331 2.331 7.692 24.699 1.301 5.208 25.610 1.610 12.069 24.483 4.517 11.231 27.645 2.537 MAPE Forecast MAD APE Y cap Y-Y cap APE 4.000 24.000 1.000 8.519 25.000 2.000 9.625 27.000 3.000 23.465 24.000 4.000 1.942 20.000 1.000 8.164 21.000 2.000 19.869 23.000 5.000 9.713 28.000 4.000 5.003 24.000 2.000 6.707 26.000 2.000 15.576 24.000 5.000 10.235 29.000 2.818 MAPE Forecast MAD 4.000 7.407 12.500 20.000 4.762 8.696 17.857 16.667 7.692 8.333 17.241 11.378 MAPE Price Sales 10 23 28 24 26 24 29 18 19 8 11 18 Forecast Error Abs IAPE Error 10.091 -0.091 0.091 00.91 8.045 -0.045 0.045 00.57 9.682 -0.682 0.682 7.58 8.864 -0.864 0.864 10.8 9.682 1.318 1.318 11.98 7.636 0.364 0.364 4.55 Period Y 24 25 27 24 20 21 23 28 24 26 24 29 |1 2 13 14 6 7 8 19 Sales 10 11 12 Results Four period Simple Exponential Smoothing Naïve Method Moving Average Method Alpha=0.7 Forecast-Average Sales Forecast Error Error Forecast Error %Error Forecast Error Error Y cap Y -YI cap 25.000 5.000 24.000 3.000 23.000 0.000 22.000 6.000 23.000 1.000 24.000 2.000 25.250 1.250 25.500 3.500 25.750 2.719 Forecast MAD Y -Y APE Y cap cap 24 1.000 24.700 2.300 26.310 2.310 25.000 24.693 4.693 14.286 21.408 0.408 0.000 21.122 1.878 21.429 22.437 5.563 4.167 26.331 2.331 7.692 24.699 1.301 5.208 25.610 1.610 12.069 24.483 4.517 11.231 27.645 2.537 MAPE Forecast MAD APE Y cap Y-Y cap APE 4.000 24.000 1.000 8.519 25.000 2.000 9.625 27.000 3.000 23.465 24.000 4.000 1.942 20.000 1.000 8.164 21.000 2.000 19.869 23.000 5.000 9.713 28.000 4.000 5.003 24.000 2.000 6.707 26.000 2.000 15.576 24.000 5.000 10.235 29.000 2.818 MAPE Forecast MAD 4.000 7.407 12.500 20.000 4.762 8.696 17.857 16.667 7.692 8.333 17.241 11.378 MAPE Price Sales 10 23 28 24 26 24 29 18 19 8 11 18 Forecast Error Abs IAPE Error 10.091 -0.091 0.091 00.91 8.045 -0.045 0.045 00.57 9.682 -0.682 0.682 7.58 8.864 -0.864 0.864 10.8 9.682 1.318 1.318 11.98 7.636 0.364 0.364 4.55

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Four period Simple Exponential Smoothing Nave Method Moving Average Method Alpha 07 ForecastAverage ... View the full answer