Question: Question #3 . Forecast for period # 13 using the three methods as shown in the table below. Find MAD and MAPE for each method.

Question #3. Forecast for period # 13 using the three methods as shown in the table below. Find MAD and MAPE for each method. Which method is giving you the best forecast? Why?

Four period Simple

Exponential Smoothing

Nave

Method

#1

Moving Average

Method Alpha = 0.7

Forecast=Last Pd Sales

Sales

Forecast Error

%Error

Forecast Error

%Error

Forecast Error

%Error

Period

Y

Y cap

Y Y cap

APE

Y cap

Y Y cap

APE

Y cap

Y Y cap

APE

1

24

-----

2

25

24

3

27

4

24

5

20

6

21

7

23

8

28

9

24

10

26

11

24

12

29

Results

===

Forecast

MAD

MAPE

Forecast

MAD

MAPE

Forecast

MAD

MAPE

The best forecast is ____________________________________

because__________________________________________________

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