The management team of a call center is making some reductions to staff. They must decide between two outbound salespeople and they plan to make their decision based on who has a higher probability of making sales. They know that in the sales business repeat calls to close a sale are common, so the management team will consider the total success rate of up to four calls. Bert has a record of closing on the first call 70% of the time, with the probability of a sale dropping 10% with each successive call. Riley has a record of closing on the first call 56% of the time, with the probability of a sale dropping 5% with each successive call. If Bert and Riley make their sale on the fourth call to any given client (which is dependent on prior events), what is the probability of a sale? Based on their results, whom should management let go and whom should they keep?

Bert Riley

1st P 0.7 0.56

2nd P 0.6 0.51

3rd P 0.5 0.46

4th P 0.4 0.41

P ? ?