$(1)(14$ points$)$ Please make forecast, based on historical demand data, for demand

from June through October using the following methods: moving average $(3),$

moving average $(4),$ exponential smoothing $(0\mathrm{.}4),$ exponential smoothing $(0\mathrm{.}8).$

Compare $$the mean absolution deviation $($MAD$)$ and $$Forecast error$$ among

these methods. Use EXCEL format & functions shown in class materials.

$(2)(8$ points$)$ Please make forecast using the simple linear regression. What is the

model? Is the model valid $($residual analysis$)?$ What is the significance of the

regression model $($R$2,$ p$-$value of the slope$)?$ Use EXCEL format & functions

shown in class materials.

$(3)(4$ points$)$ Compare the smoothing methods with the regression. Which method

would you recommend? Why? Use EXCEL format & functions shown in class

materials.