$(12$ points$)$ Please make forecast, based on historical demand data, for demand from June through October using the following methods: moving average $(3),$ moving average $(4),$ exponential smoothing $(0\mathrm{.}4),$ exponential smoothing $(0\mathrm{.}8).$ Compare $$the mean absolution deviation $($MAD$)$ and $$Forecast error$$ among these methods. Use EXCEL format & functions shown in class materials.

$(8$ points$)$ Please make forecast using the simple linear regression. What is the model? Is the model valid $($residual analysis$)?$ What is the significance of the regression model $($R$2,$ p$-$value of the slope$)?$ Use EXCEL format & functions shown in class materials.

$(6$ points$)$ Compare the smoothing methods with the regression. Which method would you recommend? Why? Use EXCEL format & functions shown in class materials.