1) (10 points) Forecasting: The monthly data for about 160 StoneAge parts (StoneAge Waterblast Tools) over a three-year period are available online. Why dont we try to forecast just Part 120 for the next period (January of 2018/period 37)? This data is on Row 118 of the spreadsheet from Columns F to AO. a) Forecast period 37 using the Nave method, Moving Averages with N = 12 (not N =2, this is different from other examples we have done), Exponential Smoothing and Linear Regression. Program MS Excel to do the calculations for you, dont try to do this by hand, and round your final answers to integers. Hint: Ive done the forecast for Nave for you and it might be a good idea to copy the 36 data points and paste them into a separate sheet vertically using the Transpose function.

Method	FC	MAD
Nave	129
MA(12)
ES
LR

b) Draw a scatter diagram of the data and paste it here. Do you see any obvious patterns?

c) According to MAD, which forecast is the best bet for period 37?

d) At the top in columns AZ, BA, BB, BC and BD, five different measures of error are listed. You know what MAD is, google what the other four abbreviations stand for and list them here.