Question: 1 2 3 4 Two experienced managers are resisting the introduction of a computerized exponential smoothing system, claiming that their judgmental forecasts are much better

1 2 3 4 Two experienced managers are resisting
1 2 3 4 Two experienced managers are resisting the introduction of a computerized exponential smoothing system, claiming that their judgmental forecasts are much better than any computer could do. Their past record of predictions is as follows: Week Actual Demand Manager's Forecast 4,200 4,500 4,300 4,800 4,300 3.700 3,200 4,200 3,800 3,500 4,500 3,500 5,700 4,800 8 4,000 4,500 9 5,000 4,000 10 4,900 5,300 Compare the manager's judgmental forecasts to those obtained using time series models. Are the manager's judgmental forecasts performing satisfactorily? (Use appropriate Excel templates and compute error metrics for the manager's forecasts on a spreadsheet.) Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places The MSE value based on the manger's forecast is 5 6 7 The model based on a smoothing constant of -Select- : is the best with the MSE value of The -Select- should be chosen based on MSE value

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