$(1)/(5)$

$\backslash$

$100\%$

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TOPIC $6$: FORECASTING$\backslash$

Practice Problems$\backslash$

A firm has the following order history over the last $6$ months.$\backslash$

$\backslash \backslash \backslash \backslash$table$[[$Month$,$Order$],[$February$,120],[$March$,95],[$April$,100],[$May$,75],[$June$,100],[$July$,50]]\backslash$

a$.$ What would be a $3-$month weighted moving average forecast for August, using weights of $8$ for the most recent month, $5$ for the month preceding the most recent month, and $3$ for the month preceding that one?$\backslash$

b$.$ What would be a na$$ve forecast for August?$\backslash$

$2.$ a$.$ Given the following data, use exponential smoothing

$(\backslash \backslash \backslash \backslash$alpha

$)$

$=$

$($

$0\mathrm{.}2)$

to develop a demand forecast for period $6.$ Assume the forecast for the initial period is $5.\backslash$

$\backslash \backslash \backslash \backslash$table$[[$Period$,$Demand$],[1,7],[2,9],[3,5],[4,9],[5,13]]\backslash$

b$.$ If the demand of period $6$ turns out to be $12,$ what are the mean absolute deviation $($MAD$)$ and mean square error $($MSE$)$ of the forecasts?