1. Consider the following data: 5 1 14 2 13 3 14 4 15 6 16 D 14 Use basic (single) exponential smoothing with alpha of 0.25 to predict periods 7 and 8. Do this two different ways: (a) assuming the first forecast is equal to the first data point, (b) assuming the first forecast is equal to the average of all six data points. Comment on the difference in your answers to (a) and (b). 2. Consider the following data: Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Actual Data 840 865 850 900 875 895 Compute forecasts for May and June using (a) a 3-period moving average, and (b) basic exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.3. [For the exponential smoothing model, assume that the forecast for January was 825). (c) Compute MAD for each of the two forecasting methods. 3. Consider the following data set: t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 6 6 7 8 7 9 10 12 13 12 14 15 16 18 Dt Use data for periods 1 through 10 and build a linear regression model. Then use the data from periods 11 through 14 to evaluate the model's forecasting ability by computing mean absolute percent errors. You may use a spreadsheet to help you if you wish