Question: 1. Consider the following time series data: (15 points) Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 22 15 19 10 16 21 20

1. Consider the following time series data: (15 points)

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Value 22 15 19 10 16 21 20

a. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Forecast for Month 8?

b. Use = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Forecast for Month 8. The forecast for Month 6 is 21.

c. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE, use periods 6 and 7 to make the judgement? Show step by step calculations

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