1. Consider the following time series data, a. fill in the table below using the nave method...
Question:
1. Consider the following time series data,
a. fill in the table below using the nave method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next year,
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
| Year | Value | Forecast | Forecast Error | Absolute Value of Forecast Error | Squared Forecast Error | Percentag Value of | Absolute e Error Percentag e Error | |
| 1 | 234 | |||||||
| 2 | 287 | |||||||
| 3 | 255 | |||||||
| 4 | 310 | |||||||
| 5 | 298 | |||||||
| 6 | 250 | |||||||
| 7 | 456 | |||||||
| 8 | 412 | |||||||
| 9 | 525 | |||||||
| 10 | 436 | |||||||
| Total |
b. Compute the following measures of forecast accuracy:
Mean absolute error
Mean squared error
Mean absolute percentage error
What is the forecast for year 11? Consider the following time series data,
a. fill in the table belowthe average of all the historical data as a forecast for the next year,
| Year | Value | Forecast | Forecast Error | Absolute Value of Forecast Error | Squared Error | Forecast Percenta Value of e Error | Absolute Percentag e Error |
| 1 | 234 | ||||||
| 2 | 287 | ||||||
| 3 | 255 | ||||||
| 4 | 310 | ||||||
| 5 | 298 | ||||||
| 6 | 250 | ||||||
| 7 | 456 | ||||||
| 8 | 412 | ||||||
| 9 | 525 | ||||||
| 10 | 436 | ||||||
| Total |
b. Compute the following measures of forecast accuracy:
Mean absolute error
Mean squared error
Mean absolute percentage error
What is the forecast for year 11?
c. Which method appears to provide the better forecast comparing the nave method to the average of past values forecasting? 1. Consider the following time series data:
Year
Value
1
234
2
287
3
255
4
310
5
6
298
250
7
302
8
267
9
225
10
336
a.
b.
Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
Develop a three-year moving average for this time series by filling in the following table.
Year
Value
Forecast
Forecast
Error
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
squared
Forecast
Error
234
287
255
310
298
250
302
267
225
336
c. Compute MSE and a forecast for the year 11. a.
Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series by filling in the following table. Compute MSE and a forecast for year 11.
Year
1
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Value
Forecast
Forecast
Error
234
287
255
310
298
250
302
267
225
336
Squared Forecast
Error
b. Compute MSE and a forecast for the year 11.
R
S
c. Which method appears to provide the better forecast comparing the moving average and the exponential smooting?
Expert Answer:
