1. Using the six steps in decision making, model a problem that requires the use of decision making related to the application of the use of a sales forecast for a supermarket.

Make the forecast using the data in the Table below. Data is in thousands of dollars.

Table. Supermarket Sales Data

Months 2014	2015	2016	2017
July 2165	2046.6	2075.3	2032.3
August 2213.5	2109.2	2097.7	2107.4
September 2103.1	1956.7	2021	2012.8
October 2133.6	2016.7	2082.8	2029.1
November 1966	1849.5	1906.9	1826
December 1937.5	1818.3	1950.3	1795
January 1856.8	1791.9	1817.8	1762.3
February 1758.4	1629	1738.3	1629.4
March 1864.3	1720.2	1993.4	1814.5
April 1889.7	1814.3	1895.8	1793.3
April 2032.8	1897.4	2009.1	1890.7
June 2014.5	1961.1	1990.3	1938.3

1. The methods that will be used are the following:

1. Trend graph for the 4 years (scatter plot), weighted moving average (for each separate year)

2. Exponential smoothing with trend fit (year 2017 only, alpha and beta is 0.5)

3. Trend regression with graph (year 2017 only)

4. Multiplicative decomposition method (year 2017 only; 4 series)

Table: Modeling of a Real Scenario

Modeling on a Real Stage THE SUPERMARKET PARGUERA 3686 Fisher Ave. La Parguera, Lajas PR 00667
He passed	Description
Definition of the problem	Maintain the level of sales and avoid losses after external events such as earthquakes, the Covid-19 pandemic, population decline in the area and inflation.
Development of a Model
Data collection
Development of a solution
Solution test
Analysis of the results
Implementation
Note: Next to this table, attach the results of the Excel Qm or QM for Windows programs that served as a support tool in decision-making for modeling a real scenario