Question: 12 Apr 13 May 16 Aug A B E F G H 1 Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment HW07 Spring 2021 2 Find the forecast

12 Apr 13 May 16 Aug A B E F G H 1 Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment HW07 Spring 2021 2 Find the forecast for January 2021, using 2 different alphas and pick the best forecast. 3 4 Given: January forecast was 750 January trend was 70 5 Given: The following 2020 Demand for the finished part Beta 4 and two alphas (4) and (8) 6 7 FIT Forecast Trend Ab(dem-FIT) 8 Month Demand Step 3 Step1 Step2 Alpha Beta error 9 Jan 2020 775 10 Feb 813 11 Mar 963 981 1275 14 Jun 1300 15 Jul 1360 1425 17 Sep 1600 18 Oct 1765 19 Nov 1822 20 Dec 1950 21 Jan 2021 22 SUM 23 MAD 24 25 Step 1 FCSTFeb-Alpha(JanDemand)+(1-Alpha(FCSTJan+TrendJan) 26 Step 2 TrendFeb=Beta(FCSTFeb-FCSTJan)+(1-Beta) (TrendJan) 27 Step 3 FIT Forecast Feb = FCSTFeb + TrendFeb 28 29 FIT Forecast Trend Ab(dem-FIT) 30 Month Demand Step 3 Step1 Step 2 Alpha Beta error 31 Jan 2020 775 32 Feb 813 33 Mar 963 34 Apr 981 1275 36 Jun 1300 37 Jul 1360 38 Aug 1425 39 Sep 1600 40 Oct 1765 41 Nov 1822 42 Dec 1950 43 Jan 2021 44 SUM 45 MAD 46 47 48 Pick the best Forecast for January and state the reason that it is the best 49 35 May

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