1)Given these data, develop a forecast for quarter 17 using centred 4-moving average method.

2) Compare your forecasts using MAPE by using the data. Which smoothing constant would you prefer?

3)Given these data, develop a forecast for quarter 17 using a double exponential smoothing model with alpha = 0.20, beta = 0.30

The All American Toy Company has records for quarterly sales for the past 4 points 4 years. These data are shown as follows. Given these data, develop a forecast for quarter 17 using a double exponential smoothing model with alpha = 0.20, beta = 0.30 and starting values for C and T based on the linear trend regression model for periods 1-16. * Sales Quarter 1 3000 2 5000 5500 3 4 7000 5 3400 6 6000 6200 7 8 8100 9 3600 10 6700 11 6400 12 9000 13 4000 7000 14 15 7300 16 9900 The All American Toy Company has records for quarterly sales for the past 4 points 4 years. These data are shown as follows. Given these data, develop a forecast for quarter 17 using a double exponential smoothing model with alpha = 0.20, beta = 0.30 and starting values for C and T based on the linear trend regression model for periods 1-16. * Sales Quarter 1 3000 2 5000 5500 3 4 7000 5 3400 6 6000 6200 7 8 8100 9 3600 10 6700 11 6400 12 9000 13 4000 7000 14 15 7300 16 9900