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Forecasting Assignment Question 1: Weekly demand at Hot Pizza are as shown. Estimate demand for the next 4 weeks using a 4- week moving average as well as simple exponential smoothing with a =0.1. Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, MSE, and TS in each case. Which of the two methods do you prefer? Why? Question 2: for the data set provided in the excel document: a) plot the data to determine the type of the equation. b) Obtain a regression equation for the data. c) Estimate average sales when the number of break-ins is five. Question 3: for the data given on excel spreadsheet: a) Obtain a linear trend line. b) Estimate the demand in period 14. c) Plot your projected line. Question 4: Plot the graph for data provided in Gas and Electrics file. What method would be best to forecast for the next 12 months? And what are your forecasts for the next 12 months for the Gas and Electric Usage. A B 1 Period 1 Demand 108 116 N 3 2 Nm 4 3 118 5 4 124 6 5 96 7 6 119 8 7 8 9 10 9 96 102 112 102 92 11 10 11 12 13 12 91 14 13 15 14 16 15 17 16 A Break-ins Sales 9 46 3 18 3 20 22 5 4 27 7 34 2 14 6 37 4 30 A B Period 1 2 Actual 700 724 | 3 4 5 720 728 740 742 758 750 6 7 8 9 10 770 775 Gas and Electric Usage Period Month 1 Jan 2 Feb 3 Mar 4 Apr 5 May 6 Jun 7 Jul 8 Aug 9 Sep 10 Oct 11 Nov 12 Dec 13 Jan 14 Feb 15 Mar 16 Apr 17 May 18 Jun 19 Jul 20 Aug 21 Sep 22 Oct 23 Nov 24 Dec 25 Jan 26 Feb 27 Mar 28 Apr 29 May 30 Jun 31 Jul 32 Aug 33 Sep 34 Oct 35 Nov 36 Dec Electric Use 967 795 820 672 722 820 1326 1262 1126 814 821 918 950 878 785 690 794 802 1445 1357 1268 889 830 935