(20 marks)

1. Draw a decision tree that represents the problem you face. Solve using therollback process. Ensure that the expected values of all nodes are clearly visible inthe decision tree. Make a recommendation based on your findings. In youraccompanying report, clearly explain the approach you took to modellinguncertainty in the problem. Include all of your calculations of consequence valuesandexpected valuesin your report.

(50 marks)

1. Prepare cumulative risk profiles for the recommended decision strategy, thesecond-best decision strategy, and the third-best decision strategy. Compare andcomment on the risk profiles, indicating whether there is a dominant risk profile.(30 marks)

Table 1: Five-year profits for 53 premium-priced craft beers launched in themarketplace(also provided as an Excel file)

Beer	Five-YearProfit(000)
1	773
2	2492
3	1910
4	1617
5	564
6	103
7	569
8	445
9	2208
10	837
11	1235
12	659
13	580
14	1150
15	622
16	598
17	681
18	987
19	1060
20	558
21	608
22	547
23	422
24	575
25	1491
26	632
27	353
28	282
29	484
30	555
31	646
32	556
33	2549
34	745
35	514
36	934
37	568
38	467
39	536
40	589
41	528
42	1330
43	797
44	711
45	889
46	524
47	1959
48	559
49	1756
50	498
51	563
52	183
53	245