(3) Use the data in sheet Q3 to develop the following forecasting models: a. 4-period moving average model, and b. Exponential smoothing with a = 0.25. For the exponential smoothing model, assume that the forecast for the first time period is the same as the actual demand for time period 1. Provide the following information from your analysis: Model Forecast for time period 12 Bias Root Mean Square Error Forecast for time period 101 4 period MA Exponential smoothing with a = 0.25 (a) Provide an explanation for the bias of the two models. (b) Which model would you choose? Provide a clear explanation of your choice. A B 1 1 Time period | Demand 2 1 6038 3 2 5691 4 3 6386 5 4 5789 6 5 6311 7 6 5740 8 7 6399 9 8 6533 10 9 5303 11 10 6333 12 11 5424 13 12 5475 14 13 15 14 5606 5434 6336 16 15 17 18 16 17 18 6664 6062 5408 5424 19 20 19 20 6938 21 21 22 23 24 25 22 5370 6700 5194 23 24 25 6850 5568 6754 26 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 27 28 29 6977 5946 5556 6167 30 31 5306 33 5645 34 35 32 33 34 6531 6246 36 35 5115 37 36 6482 38 37 6972 5147 39 38 40 39 6571 41 40 41 42 43 42 5426 6735 6746 6120 5846 5757 44 43 44 45 45 46 47 46 48 47 48 49 5387 5747 5755 6280 50 5584 49 50 51 52 53 54 51 52 53 6360 6125 5935 54 6255 55 56 55 6004 57 56 5680 57 6675 58 59 60 58 5337 59 5486 61 60 5891 62 61 63 62 4 63 6368 6859 6801 6715 6606 65 4 65 67 66 5782 7223 68 67 69 68 431 70 9 5560 70 71 72 71 6346 5235 6356 73 72 74 73 5965 75 74 5674 76 75 5791 6132 7 76 78 79 78 6229 5682 6029 6682 80 79 81 80 82 81 6273 6025 83 82 4 83 6106 5975 85 4 85 6740 87 86 6140 88 87 5217 5938 89 88 90 89 567 6157 91 0 92 91 7559 93 92 8211 7371 4 93 95 94 7959 6 5 8154 97 6 7864 7031 98 97 99 8420 98 99 100 7637 101 100 8587