$4\mathrm{.}2$

Year

$1$

$2$

$3$

$4$

$5$

$6$

$7$

$8$

$9$

$10$

$11$

Demand

$7$

$9$

$5$

$9$

$13$

$8$

$12$

$13$

$9$

$11$

$7$

Plot the above data on a graph. Do you observe any trend, cycles, or random variations?

Starting in year $4$ and going to year $12,$ forecast demand using a $3-$year moving average. Plot your forecast on the same graph as the original data.

Starting in year $4$ and going to year $12,$ forecast demand using a $3-$year moving average with weights of $\mathrm{.}1,\mathrm{.}3,$ and $\mathrm{.}6,$ using $\mathrm{.}6$ for the most recent year. Plot this forecast on the same graph.

As you compare forecasts with the original data, which seems to give the better results? $($MyLab Operations Management also includes a shorter $($brief$)$ version of this problem.$)$PX