Question: 4. Consider screening for COVID-19. Using made up percentages for the sake of simplifying the numbers, let's assume that 15 in 100 people on long

4. Consider screening for COVID-19. Using made up

4. Consider screening for COVID-19. Using made up percentages for the sake of simplifying the numbers, let's assume that 15 in 100 people on long island have the virus. What is the prior odds of having COVID on long island? Suppose that if a person has the virus, then the COVID test will find it 80 times out of 100. Meanwhile the COVID test may give a false positive result. If the person being tested actually doesn't have virus, the chances that the test nevertheless comes out positive are 20 in 100. What is the likelihood ratio? The probability of a positive result in case of COVID divided by the probability of a positive result in case of no COVID? What do you think are the odds that a person has OVID-19 given the observation that the test is positive? What is the probability that a person has OVID-19 given the observation of a positive test

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