$4$ Time Series Analysis

$4\mathrm{.}1$ Stable Seasonal Pattern

Suppose that sales last year were $80\mathrm{.}0$ B$$,$ and there is a stable seasonal pattern across

quarters, namely $15\%,20\%,25\%,$ and $40\%$ for the rst$,$ second, third, and fourth quarters,

respectively.

$17.$ Using the predictor that total sales for this year will be ten percent higher than sales were

for last year, what is the forecast of total sales for this year $?$

$($A$)8\mathrm{.}0($B$)80\mathrm{.}0($C$)88\mathrm{.}0($D$)90\mathrm{.}0($E$)100$ B$

$3$

$18.$ Using this forecast of annual sales and stable seasonal pattern, forecast the sales for the

second quarter of this year.

$($A$)8\mathrm{.}0($B$)16\mathrm{.}0($C$)17\mathrm{.}6($D$)90\mathrm{.}0($E$)100$ B$

$19.($continuation$)$ Nowcasting. Using the new information that sales for Q$1,$ the rst quarter

of this year, were $12\mathrm{.}0$ B$$,$ forecast the sales for Q$2,$ the second quarter of this year.

Reason that now the predicted total for this year is given by $12=\mathrm{.}15$ x total, or total $=$

$12/\mathrm{.}15=4/\mathrm{.}05=4(20)=80,$ and that the sales in Q$2$ will be $20\%$ of that, or

$($A$)8\mathrm{.}0($B$)16\mathrm{.}0($C$)80\mathrm{.}0($D$)90\mathrm{.}0($E$)100$ B$