Question: . (40 points) Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 24 13 20 12 19 23 15

. (40 points) Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 24 13 20 12 19 23 15 Use naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (1) (10 points) Mean Absolute Error (2) (10 points) Mean Squared Error (3) (10 points) Mean Absolute Percentage Error (4) (10 points) What is the forecast for week 8? 2. (60 points) Consider the following time series data: Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 16 11 17 14 (1) (30 points) Compute three week moving average forecast. Then Compute mean absolute error and mean square error for this method. (2) (30 points) Compute forecast using exponential smoothing ( = 0.02). Then Compute mean abso- lute error and mean square error for this method.

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