Problem 15-05 (Algorithmic)

Consider the following time series data.

Week	1	2	3	4	5	6
Value	17	13	15	11	16	14

1. Choose the correct time series plot.

1. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places.

   Week	Time Series Value	Forecast
   1	17
   2	13
   3	15
   4	11	fill in the blank 3
   5	16	fill in the blank 4
   6	14	fill in the blank 5

   MSE: fill in the blank 6 The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 7
2. Use = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places.

   Week	Time Series Value	Forecast
   1	17
   2	13	fill in the blank 8
   3	15	fill in the blank 9
   4	11	fill in the blank 10
   5	16	fill in the blank 11
   6	14	fill in the blank 12

   MSE: fill in the blank 13 The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 14
3. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?
4. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for = 0.2. Find a value of for the smallest MSE. Round your answer to three decimal places. = fill in the blank 17

Problem 15-05 (Algorithmic) Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 17 13 15 11 16 14 a. Choose the correct time series plot. (1) D 20- 18- 16- 14- 12 10- 8 6+ 4 2 20- 18 16- 14- 12- 10- 8 6 4- 2 Time Series Value M Time Series Value 1 5 Plot (iv) What type of pattern exists in the data? 6 3 Week(t) Week(t) (iv) 20- 18- 16- 14- 12- 10- 8. 6. a 4- 2 18- 16- 14- ww 12- 10- 6. 20- 4. Time Series Value 2 Time Series Value 2 3 Week(t) Week(t) b. Horizontal Pattern oving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places. Trend Pattern b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places. Time Series Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 MSE: Value 17 13 15 11 16 14 Forecast The forecast for week 7: c. Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places. Time Series Value 17 Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 MSE: 13 15 11 16 14 Forecast The forecast for week 7: d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Three-week moving average e. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for a = 0.2. Find a value of a for the smallest MSE. Round your answer to three decimal places. = Problem 15-05 (Algorithmic) Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 17 13 15 11 16 14 a. Choose the correct time series plot. (1) D 20- 18- 16- 14- 12 10- 8 6+ 4 2 20- 18 16- 14- 12- 10- 8 6 4- 2 Time Series Value M Time Series Value 1 5 Plot (iv) What type of pattern exists in the data? 6 3 Week(t) Week(t) (iv) 20- 18- 16- 14- 12- 10- 8. 6. a 4- 2 18- 16- 14- ww 12- 10- 6. 20- 4. Time Series Value 2 Time Series Value 2 3 Week(t) Week(t) b. Horizontal Pattern oving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places. Trend Pattern b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places. Time Series Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 MSE: Value 17 13 15 11 16 14 Forecast The forecast for week 7: c. Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places. Time Series Value 17 Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 MSE: 13 15 11 16 14 Forecast The forecast for week 7: d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Three-week moving average e. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for a = 0.2. Find a value of a for the smallest MSE. Round your answer to three decimal places. =