5. A local firm sells heart shaped balloons for Valentine's Day to bars and restaurants in...

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5. A local firm sells heart shaped balloons for Valentine's Day to bars and restaurants in South- Western Ontario. The operations manager of the company recognizes business is competitive and risky, and the ability to correctly predict demand for the next season and deliver orders promptly is a big factor in getting new customers and maintaining old ones. Customers typically don't place an order in advance. The operation manager of the firm wants to be certain that enough drivers and vehicles are available to deliver orders promptly and that they produce enough balloons for the season. The operations manager wants to be able to forecast the demand for 2022. From previous orders, the hat company has the following information for 2012 through 2021. Month 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Orders 4,400 5,200 5,300 4,700 4,600 5,400 5,700 6,000 5,600 6,300 a) Forecast orders for 2015 through 202022 using (i) naive method, (ii) a 2-month moving average; (iii) a 3-month moving average, (iv) a 3-month weighted moving average. Use weights of 4, 3, and 2, with the heavier weights on the more recent months, (v) exponential smoothing with a = 0.5. Assume that the initial forecast for 2014 was 5,000. b) Compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean squared deviation (MSD)for 2015 through 2021 for each of the methods used. Which method would you recommend to forecast orders for 2022? Why? 5. A local firm sells heart shaped balloons for Valentine's Day to bars and restaurants in South- Western Ontario. The operations manager of the company recognizes business is competitive and risky, and the ability to correctly predict demand for the next season and deliver orders promptly is a big factor in getting new customers and maintaining old ones. Customers typically don't place an order in advance. The operation manager of the firm wants to be certain that enough drivers and vehicles are available to deliver orders promptly and that they produce enough balloons for the season. The operations manager wants to be able to forecast the demand for 2022. From previous orders, the hat company has the following information for 2012 through 2021. Month 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Orders 4,400 5,200 5,300 4,700 4,600 5,400 5,700 6,000 5,600 6,300 a) Forecast orders for 2015 through 202022 using (i) naive method, (ii) a 2-month moving average; (iii) a 3-month moving average, (iv) a 3-month weighted moving average. Use weights of 4, 3, and 2, with the heavier weights on the more recent months, (v) exponential smoothing with a = 0.5. Assume that the initial forecast for 2014 was 5,000. b) Compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean squared deviation (MSD)for 2015 through 2021 for each of the methods used. Which method would you recommend to forecast orders for 2022? Why?