6. In a project, where activity B is preceded by A, and activity D is preceded by C. with three time estimates for A are (11,22,33), for B (6,12,18), for C (12,12,12). and for D(5,10,15), what will be the probability of finishing the project in more than 44 weeks? P(PCT>44) ? a) 0.5 b) 0.7157 c) 0.2843 d) 1 2 e) 0 Two paths: 1) A-B 2)C-D te (A)= (11+ 4(22)+33)6 = 22 Var (A)=((33-1116)2=(22/6) 2 Activity te Variance activity times) B D Path Path time Z-score Path Variance Path Std Deviation P(Path time 44 weeks) = Forecasting