Question: A B C D E F G H I J Most Optimistic 3 5 5 3 10 2 5 10 10 18 Most Likely 15

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J
Most Optimistic	3	5	5	3	10	2	5	10	10	18
Most Likely	15	8	8	10	15	5	9	15	12	20
Worst Case Time	36	24	12	15	22	8	25	33	32	30

PERT-MEAN	16.50	10.17	8.17	9.67	15.33	5.00	11.00	17.17	15.00	21.33
SD	5.50	3.17	1.17	2.00	2.00	1.00	3.33	3.83	3.67	2.00
Variance	30.25	10.03	1.36	4.00	4.00	1.00	11.11	14.69	13.44	4.00

Please answer the following with the formulas/work.

Question 1. Assume that activity A took 20 days to complete. Upon completion of activity A, the project planner wants to determine the probability that project will be completed in 80 day? What is the probability?

Question 2. Assume that activity A took 20 days to complete. Activity times for B, D and F remained unchanged but activity C took 10.2 days to complete. What is the probability that project will be completed in 80 days based on project progress at the end of 30.2 days?

Question 3. Assume that activity A took 16.5 days, B 12 days, F 8 days, and E 10 days. Activity times for C and D remained unchanged. What is the probability that project will be completed in 80 days based on the project progress at the end of 3.5 days?

Question 4. Assume that activities A and B took 16.5 and 10.2 days, respectively. If activity E takes 17 days and H takes 20 days, what is the probability that project will be completed in 80 days upon completion of activity H? What should be the new activity time for activity J to have probability of completion to be .95?

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