A card is randomly drawn from a standard deck and set aside, but you do not see the card. You want to assess the likelihood that the card is an Ace (you should assume that there are 52 cards in the deck, of which four are Aces). a) Without knowing anything else, what probability would you assign to the event that the card is an Ace? (this is your prior probability). b) Your friend draws another card from the deck and says that this second card is not an Ace. However your friend lies 10% of the time. What probability would you now assign to the event that the first card drawn was an Ace? (this is the posterior probability)