A$$ check$-$processing center uses exponential smoothing to forecast the number of incoming checks each month. The number of checks received in June was

$4242$

$$million$,$ while the forecast was

$4242$

million. A smoothing constant of

$0\mathrm{.}250\mathrm{.}25$

is used.

Part $2$

$$a$)$ Using exponential smoothing and given

alpha$,$

the forecast for the month of July$=$

$4242$

million checks received $($round your response to one decimal$$ place$).$

Part $3$

$$b$)$ If the$$ check$-$processing center received

$4646$

million checks in the month of$$ July, then using exponential smoothing and given

alpha$,$

the forecast for the month of August$=$

$4343$

million checks received $($round your response to one decimal$$ place$).$

Part $4$

$$c$)$ Exponential smoothing may not be an appropriate method to use for the$$ check$-$processing center$$ because:

A$.$

the$$ check$-$processing center should observe seasonality in its processing requirements.

B$.$

the$$ check$-$processing center should observe an increasing trend in its processing requirements.

C$.$

the$$ check$-$processing center's forecast is very hard to make as its processing requirements should have a very high variability.

D$.$

the$$ check$-$processing center should observe a cyclical trend in its processing requirements.