A company is working on forecasting demand for a roller bearing.

You may show details of your calculations on the word file below or submit an excel file with

the calculations to get the full credit.

a$)$ Calculate forecasts from Feb to Apr using $4-$Month Moving Average $(7$ points$)$

b$)$ Calculate forecasts from Feb to Apr using $4-$Month Weighted Moving Average. The

weights are as follows: w$1=0\mathrm{.}4,$ w$2=0\mathrm{.}25,$ w$3=0\mathrm{.}2,$ w$4=0\mathrm{.}15,(7$ points$)$

c$)$ Calculate forecasts from Feb to Apr using exponential smoothing. Use $\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}45$ and FJAN$=350$

$(6$ points$)$

Month and Year Sales

Oct $401$

Nov $290$

Dec $527$

Jan $414$

Feb $825$

Mar $626$

Apr $100$

May $?$

$2.$ IGLE provides maintenance, repair and operations $($MRO$)$ products to its customer The Company

decides the optimum customer service level based on profit maximization. According to the available

data, sales response rate is $0\mathrm{.}15\%$ change in revenue for a $1\%$ change in the service level $($fill rate$).$

Trading margin is $$14$ per sealant boxes, inventory carrying cost is $32\%$ per year, average yearly sales

amount is $5000$ boxes. Cost of each sealant box is $$200,$ demand standard deviation is $30$ boxes for a

week, and the lead time is $5$ weeks.

a$)$ Determine the optimal customer service level for the sealant product. $(5$ points$)$

b$)$ What happens to the optimal customer service level if the inventory carrying cost changed to $30\%$

$(5$ points$)$