A construction company is planning to bid for a government project to build a new airport runway.
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Question:
A construction company is planning to bid for a government project to build a new airport runway. The estimated project cost is $100 million, and the construction period is expected to last for two years. The company's management team has identified four potential risks associated with the project, which are:
- Labor shortages that may cause delays and increase costs.
- Adverse weather conditions that may cause delays and affect the quality of work.
- Increase in the price of raw materials due to supply chain disruptions.
- Changes in government regulations that may affect the project's timeline and budget.
The management team has assigned probabilities and impacts to each risk as follows:
Risk | Probability | Impact |
---|---|---|
Labor shortages | 0.30 | $20 million |
Adverse weather conditions | 0.20 | $10 million |
Supply chain disruptions | 0.15 | $15 million |
Government regulation changes | 0.10 | $5 million |
Assuming that the risks are independent of each other, calculate the expected value of the total risk cost, the standard deviation of the total risk cost, and the probability of a cost overrun exceeding $20 million.
Related Book For
Construction accounting and financial management
ISBN: 978-0135017111
2nd Edition
Authors: Steven j. Peterson
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