Question: A diagnosis for a test is such that it (correctly) detects the disease in 86% of the individuals who actually have the disease. Also, if
A diagnosis for a test is such that it (correctly) detects the disease in 86% of the individuals who actually have the disease. Also, if a person does not have the disease, the test will report that he or she does not have it with probability 0.81. Only 4% of the population has the disease in question. If a person is chosen at random from the population and the diagnostic test indicates that he or she has the disease, what is the conditional probability that the person does, in fact, have the disease? [Please provide your numerical answer to three decimal places X.XXX]
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