Question: A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or high, with the estimated

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A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or high, with the estimated probabilities being 0.25, 0.40, and 0.35, respectively. A small facility is expected to earn an after-tax net present value of just $11,000 if demand is low. If demand is average, the small facility is expected to earn $15,000; can be increased to medium size to earn a net present value of $30,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn $25,000 and can be expanded to medium size to earn $40,000 or to large size to earn $75,000. A medium-sized facility is expected to lose an estimated $25,000 if demand is low and earn $130,000 if demand is average. If demand is high, the medium-sized facility is expected to earn a net present value of $150,000; it can be expanded to a large size for a net payoff of $165,000. If a large facility is built and demand is high, earnings are expected to be $170,000. If demand is average for the large facility, the present value is expected to be $80,000; if demand is low, the facility is expected to lose $40,000. Choose the correct decision tree below. Note that each payoff is given in thousands ($000). O A. B. Expand to Irg Do nothing $165 $150 Expand to Irg Large $165 Large High 0.25 $170 Avg 0.40 $80 Low 0.35 $40 High 0.25 Avg 0.40 $130 Low 0.35 $25 High 0.25 High 0.35 Avg 0.40 $80 Low 0.25 - $40 High 0.35 $170 Avg 0.40 -$130 Low 0.25 - $25 High 0.35 Med Med Small Do nothing $150 Expand to Irg $75 Expand to med '$40 Do nothing $25 Expand to med $30 Do nothing $15 Small Expand to Irg $75 Expand to med $40 Do nothing $25 Expand to med $30 Do nothing $15 Avg 0.40 Low 0.35 $11 Avg 0.40 Low 0.25 $11 D. Expand to Irg Expand to Irg $165 Large $165 High 0.35 $170 Avg 0.40 $80 Low 0.25 - $40 Large High 0.35 Med, Avg 0.40 $130 Low 0.25 - $25 High 0.35 Small High 0.35 $170 Avg 0.40 $80 Low 0.25 - $40 High 0.35 Avg 0.40 $130 Low 0.25 - $25 High 0.35 Med 6 Do nothing $150 Expand to Irg $75 Expand to med $40 Do nothing $25 Expand to med "$30 Do nothing $15 Small 3 Do nothing $150 Expand to Irg $75 Expand to med$40 Do nothing $25 Expand to med $30 Do nothing $15 Avg 0.40 Low 0.25 $11 Avg 0.40 Low 0.25 $11

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