A startup company currently has enough resources to execute only one of the two potential business projects:
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Question:
- A startup company currently has enough resources to execute only one of the two potential business projects:
- 1) AI Technology or
- 2) Quantum Technology.
- If the company chooses the AI project, there is a 20% chance of getting an investment of $100,000 from outside investors in year 1 and an 80% chance of getting no investment from the investors. If the AI project already receives an investment in year 1, there will be no additional investment available in year 2. However, if the AI project gets no investment in year 1, the company believes that it has a 50% chance of getting an investment of $100,000 from the investors in year 2 and a 50% chance of getting no investment again. If the company chooses the Quantum project, there is a 50% chance of getting an investment of $50,000 from outside investors in year 1 and a 50% chance of getting no investment from the investors.
- If the Quantum project receives an investment in year 1, there is a 40% chance of getting another investment of $50,000 and a 60% chance of getting nothing additional from the investors in year 2. However, if the Quantum project gets no investment in year 1, the company estimates that it has a 60% chance of getting an investment of $50,000 and a 40% chance of getting no investment again. For both the AI and Quantum projects, no further investment will be available beyond year 2.
- QUESTION:
- What is the probability that the Quantum project will get investment in both year 1 and year 2?
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