a. Step 1: Activity sequences A-D-J, B-F-K, and C-H-L are critical paths (please recall the definition of critical path). The project manager does not want to disappoint the customer with late delivery. Therefore, his time duration estimates for each critical path is 10 weeks, and he believes the probability of being on time or early for each critical path is 80% (and 20% likely to be late). What is probabaility that the project will be late?

Step 2: Suppose project sponsors and stakeholders put pressure on the project team and they modify their plans and estimates to a more optimistic estimate. The new plan is to finish the project in 8 weeks instead of 10 weeks (now, each critical path is 8 weeks), but they believe the estimates are likely to be 40% early or on-time (and 60% likely to be late). Now, what is the probabaility that the project will be late?