(a) The article states that the 10 year average return for shares is 6.5%. Assume this is the return made under "normal" market conditions, and that the return made under "bull market" conditions is 12.4%, and that the return made under "bear market" conditions is -2.6%. If the probability of normal conditions is 50%, the probability of a bull market is 40% and the probability of a bear market is 10%, calculate the expected return for shares over the next year. (b) If you need to make a return of 6.0%, should you invest in shares, or should you look for another investment? (Include enough working to show you understand the calculations.)