ABC Data:

Sales Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

JAN 2000 3000 2000 5000 5000

FEB 3000 4000 5000 4000 2000

MAR 3000 3000 5000 4000 3000

APR 3000 5000 3000 2000 2000

MAY 4000 5000 4000 5000 7000

JUN 6000 8000 6000 7000 6000

JUL 7000 3000 7000 10000 8000

AUG 6000 8000 10000 14000 10000

SEP 10000 12000 15000 16000 20000

OCT 12000 12000 15000 16000 20000

NOV 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000

DEC 8000 10000 8000 12000 8000

Total 78000 89000 98000 115000 113000

Q.1 - Plot the data. What do you see in this data (mark all that apply)?

a) Seasonality

b) Trend

c) No Pattern

Q2 - For the ABC data, perform a simple exponential smoothing forecast to predict total sales in year 6. Use alpha of 0.2. The forecast for year 1 was 70000 units.

Answer : .............

Q.3 What is the MAD for the exponential smoothing forecast you calculated in the previous question?

Answer: ..............

Q4. Use solver to calculate the optimal value of alpha for the exponential smoothing forecast of the ABC data. Write the optimal alpha below and attach your excel file.

Answer: ...................