a) What fora) (5 points) What forecasting technique(s) would be best suited to forecast the sales? Why?
Question:
a) What fora) (5 points) What forecasting technique(s) would be best suited to forecast the sales? Why? Split the data into two: 2013-15 (for forecast model building or calibration) and 2016-18 (for forecast model validation or testing)
b) (50 points) Use data for years 2013-15 for building the forecast models • Moving Average of 3 data points • Linear Regression • Decomposition technique • Single Exponential Smoothing i. Generate forecasts using alpha = 0.2 • Double Exponential Smoothing i. Generate forecasts using alpha = 0.2, beta = 0.1 • Triple Exponential Smoothing i. Generate forecasts using alpha = 0.2, beta = 0.1, gamma = 0.3
c) (15 points) Forecast for years 2013-15 as well as 2016-18
d) (10 points) Plot actual data versus forecasts in graphs
e) (10 points) Test the accuracy of the model for years separately for 2013-15 and 2016-18, using the mean-squared error (MSE) and mean-absolute deviation (MAD) metrics. • How does the accuracy compare for the 2013-15 model building periods versus 2016-18 (model validation) periods? Explain why? • Which forecasting technique is performing better? Why? ecasting technique(s) would be best suited to forecast the sales? Why? Split the data into two: 2013-15 (for forecast model building or calibration) and 2016-18 (for forecast model validation or testing) b) (50 points) Use data for years 2013-15 for building the forecast models • Moving Average of 3 data points • Linear Regression • Decomposition technique • Single Exponential Smoothing i. Generate forecasts using alpha = 0.2 • Double Exponential Smoothing i. Generate forecasts using alpha = 0.2, beta = 0.1 • Triple Exponential Smoothing i. Generate forecasts using alpha = 0.2, beta = 0.1, gamma = 0.3
Principles of Accounting
ISBN: 978-1133626985
12th edition
Authors: Belverd E. Needles, Marian Powers and Susan V. Crosson