Acme Inc. is looking to predict their spending plan as best as they can and to make significant improvements to estimate future demand in the presence of uncertainty $.$ You are the Private Fleet Manager and you want to make sure you can accurately budget for diesel fuel by using a suitable forecasting technique $.$ You have been given basic raw data to forecast and make recommendations.

Perform a forecasting analysis to predict the $12$ week future forecast for diesel fuel. Use :

a$.5-$p moving average.

b$.$ Exponential smoothing. Choose the best alpha value that you would recommend and make sure to explain your approach.

c$.$ Is the linear regression between WTI and Diesel cost a good model for this exercise? What are your recommendations?

d$.$ Research another factor $($ besides WTI and Diesel cost$),$ try to find the data for this variable and then perform a multiple linear regression to see if you can get a good model.

Date WTI Diesel $$/$gal

Jan $02,2017$

Jan $09,201751\mathrm{.}962\mathrm{.}597$

Jan $16,2017$ N$/$A $2\mathrm{.}585$

Jan $23,201752\mathrm{.}752\mathrm{.}569$

Jan $30,201752\mathrm{.}632\mathrm{.}562$

Feb $06,201753\mathrm{.}012\mathrm{.}558$

Feb $13,201752\mathrm{.}92\mathrm{.}565$

Feb $20,2017$ N$/$A $2\mathrm{.}572$

Feb $27,201754\mathrm{.}052\mathrm{.}577$

Mar $06,201753\mathrm{.}22\mathrm{.}579$

Mar $13,201748\mathrm{.}42\mathrm{.}564$

Mar $20,201748\mathrm{.}222\mathrm{.}539$

Mar $27,201747\mathrm{.}732\mathrm{.}532$

Apr $03,201750\mathrm{.}242\mathrm{.}556$

Apr $10,201753\mathrm{.}082\mathrm{.}582$

Apr $17,201752\mathrm{.}652\mathrm{.}597$

Apr $24,201749\mathrm{.}232\mathrm{.}595$

May $01,201748\mathrm{.}842\mathrm{.}583$

May $08,201746\mathrm{.}432\mathrm{.}565$

May $15,201748\mathrm{.}852\mathrm{.}544$

May $22,201750\mathrm{.}732\mathrm{.}539$

May $29,2017$ N$/$A $2\mathrm{.}571$

Jun $05,201747\mathrm{.}42\mathrm{.}564$

Jun $12,201746\mathrm{.}082\mathrm{.}524$

Jun $19,201744\mathrm{.}22\mathrm{.}489$

Jun $26,201743\mathrm{.}382\mathrm{.}465$

Jul $03,201747\mathrm{.}042\mathrm{.}472$

Jul $10,201744\mathrm{.}42\mathrm{.}481$

Jul $17,201746\mathrm{.}022\mathrm{.}491$

Jul $24,201746\mathrm{.}342\mathrm{.}507$

Jul $31,201750\mathrm{.}172\mathrm{.}531$

Aug $07,201749\mathrm{.}392\mathrm{.}581$

Aug $14,201747\mathrm{.}592\mathrm{.}598$

Aug $21,201747\mathrm{.}372\mathrm{.}596$

Aug $28,201746\mathrm{.}572\mathrm{.}605$

Sep $04,2017$ N$/$A $2\mathrm{.}758$

Sep $11,201748\mathrm{.}062\mathrm{.}802$

Sep $18,201749\mathrm{.}882\mathrm{.}791$

Sep $25,201751\mathrm{.}852\mathrm{.}788$

Oct $02,201750\mathrm{.}592\mathrm{.}792$

Oct $09,201749\mathrm{.}582\mathrm{.}776$

Oct $16,201751\mathrm{.}862\mathrm{.}787$

Oct $23,201751\mathrm{.}912\mathrm{.}797$

Oct $30,201754\mathrm{.}112\mathrm{.}819$

Nov $06,201757\mathrm{.}342\mathrm{.}882$

Nov $13,201756\mathrm{.}772\mathrm{.}915$

Nov $20,201756\mathrm{.}212\mathrm{.}912$

Nov $27,201758\mathrm{.}12\mathrm{.}926$

Dec $04,201757\mathrm{.}482\mathrm{.}922$

Dec $11,201757\mathrm{.}842\mathrm{.}91$

Dec $18,201757\mathrm{.}172\mathrm{.}901$

Dec $25,2017$ N$/$A $2\mathrm{.}903$

Jan $01,2018$ N$/$A $2\mathrm{.}973$

Jan $08,201861\mathrm{.}732\mathrm{.}996$

Jan $15,2018$ N$/$A $3\mathrm{.}028$

Jan $22,201863\mathrm{.}663\mathrm{.}025$

Jan $29,201865\mathrm{.}713\mathrm{.}07$

Feb $05,201864\mathrm{.}183\mathrm{.}086$

Feb $12,201859\mathrm{.}413\mathrm{.}063$

Feb $19,2018$ N$/$A $3\mathrm{.}027$

Feb $26,201863\mathrm{.}813\mathrm{.}007$

Mar $05,201862\mathrm{.}492\mathrm{.}992$

Mar $12,201861\mathrm{.}352\mathrm{.}976$

Mar $19,201862\mathrm{.}012\mathrm{.}972$

Mar $26,201865\mathrm{.}493\mathrm{.}01$

Apr $02,201863\mathrm{.}053\mathrm{.}042$

Apr $09,201863\mathrm{.}43\mathrm{.}043$

Apr $16,201866\mathrm{.}233\mathrm{.}104$

Apr $23,201867\mathrm{.}613\mathrm{.}133$

Apr $30,201868\mathrm{.}563\mathrm{.}157$

May $07,201870\mathrm{.}743\mathrm{.}171$

May $14,201871\mathrm{.}013\mathrm{.}239$

May $21,201872\mathrm{.}263\mathrm{.}277$

May $28,2018$ N$/$A $3\mathrm{.}288$

Jun $04,201864\mathrm{.}763\mathrm{.}285$

Jun $11,201866\mathrm{.}13\mathrm{.}266$

Jun $18,201865\mathrm{.}913\mathrm{.}244$

Jun