A)Construct a decision tree for the attached problem

B)the expected monetary value for each decision

C)the decision that you would recommend

R ? all . B/S 9 42 1:42 7 BCM 226: Page 2 of 2 L Collins Simiyu recently acquired a piece of land in Kitale. A property development company has offe red him Sh.300, 000 for the piece of land. He has to make a decision on whether to cultivate the piec e of land or to sell it to the property development company. If he decides to cultivate the land, there i s a probability of getting a high, medium or low harvest. The expected net income for each of the ab ove states of harvest is shown below: State of harvest Net income (Sh.) High 500,000 Medium 100,000 Low (200,000) From experience, there is a 10 per cent probability that the harvest will be low, a 30 per cent probability that the harvest will be medium and a 60 per cent probability that the harvest will be high. Collins Si miyu can engage an agricultural expert to carry out a survey on the productivity of the land, which will cost him Sh.30, 000. The agricultural expert gives the following information as to the reliability of su ch surveys (prior probabilities). Results of survey State of harvest High Medium Low Total Accurate 0.35 0.10 0.05 0.5 Not accurate 0.25 0.10 0.15 0.5 0.60 0.20 0.20 1.0 Required: 7 BCM 226: Page 3 of 2 L i) Construct a decision tree for the above problem. (6 marks) 1) The expected monetary value for each decision (7 marks) iii) The decision that you would recommend (2 marks) O O