$($All answers were generated using $1,000$ trials and native Excel functionality.$)$

At a local university, the Student Commission on Programming and Entertainment $($SCOPE$)$ is preparing to host its first music concert of the school year. To successfully produce this music concert, SCOPE has to complete several activities. The following table lists information regarding each activity. An activity$$s immediate predecessors are the activities that must be completed before the considered activity can begin. The table also lists duration estimates $($in days$)$ for each activity.

Activity Immediate

Predecessors Minimum

Time Likely

Time Maximum

Time

A: Negotiate contract with selected musicians $569$

B: Reserve site $81215$

C: Logistical arrangements for music group A $567$

D: Screen and hire security personnel B $333$

E: Advertising and ticketing B$,$ C $159$

F: Hire parking staff D $4710$

G: Arrange concession sales E $3810$

The following network illustrates the precedence relationships in the SCOPE project. The project begins with activities A and B$,$ which can start immediately $($time $0)$ because they have no predecessors. On the other hand, activity E cannot be started until activities B and C are both completed. The project is not complete until all activities are completed.

$($a$)$ Using the triangular distribution to represent the duration of each activity, construct a simulation model to estimate the average amount of time to complete the concert preparations.

Round your answers to one decimal place.

Project Duration

Average

days

Standard Deviation

days

$($b$)$ What is the likelihood that the project will be complete in $23$ days or less?

Round your answer to the nearest whole number.

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