Question: Alpha .30 Beta .20 t Data % error 1 2 Smoothed 5,135.7 5,084.6 5,011.4 4,840.9 5,033.2 4,760.1 3 4 5 5,114 4,982 4,591 5,680 4,191

Alpha .30 Beta .20 t Data % error 1 2 Smoothed

Alpha .30 Beta .20 t Data % error 1 2 Smoothed 5,135.7 5,084.6 5,011.4 4,840.9 5,033.2 4,760.1 3 4 5 5,114 4,982 4,591 5,680 4,191 4,928 4,909 6,410 5,330 6,713 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Trend Forecast -63.3 * -60.8 5,072 -63.3 5,024 -84.7 4,948 -29.3 4,756 -78.1 5,004 -63.3 4,682 -50.4 4,692 51.8 4,707 55.5 5,270 137.6 198.5 5,892 294.0 6,395 170.1 7,166 6,717 118.8 6,693 163.2 6,717 68.9 7,102 59.2 6,699 66.4 6,710 142.0 6,812 69.9 7,332 71.6 7,042 79.7 4,757.1 5,217.9 5,288.0 5,754.0 6,196.2 6,872.3 6,546.5 6,555.3 6,597.9 6,939.0 6,630.4 6,650.7 6,746.0 7,190.3 6,971.7 7,050.4 7,162.5 0.8 -0.8 -7.8 16.3 -19.4 5.0 4.4 26.6 1.1 20.4 14.7 19.9 -40.5 -8.7 -5.0 9.9 -28.4 -2.5 1.8 15.6 -19.6 0.4 7,986 5,101 6,178 6,376 7,457 5,530 6,538 6,830 8,073 6,131 7,070 7,257 8,803 9. Develop a tracking signal, based on periods 5 through 8. 10. Does your tracking signal indicate the model is tracking the data: A. okay B. poorly C. Indicates nothing about the models tracking., 11. Calculate a bias based on periods 19 to 22

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