Although bird strike is common, it can be a significant threat to aircraft safety. In recent years, bird strikes have increased the annual number of aircraft accidents which occurred worldwide. The significant damaged to the smaller aircraft can results a number of fatal accidents whereas a threat of continuing safe flight can be imposed to the bigger engined aircraft.

Gotham Airways manager has asked a statistician to perform a time series analysis on the quarterly reported bird strikes figures in the past 3 years. The statistician was called away on urgent business and you have been asked to finish the analysis. A copy of the data is shown on BIRDSTK worksheet. You have been told that the aim is to forecast the next 4 quarters bird strikes.

1. Complete the calculations that are required to estimate the bird strikes forecast for Quarter 1, 2, 3 and 4 of Year 4 including the numbers of bird strikes forecast for the quarter 1, 2, 3 and 4 of year 4. The table should include, Moving Average, Trend Centered Moving Average, Seasonal variation, adjusted seasonal values, extended trend and bird strikes forecast. (22 marks)

2. Conclude the results that you achieved from the questions above using appropriate reference to support your discussion. (8 marks)

Your answers should include: (approximately 200 words)

1. The purpose of the forecasting in business that can be used in line with business aircraft.
2. Conclusion a summary of what you have learnt and achieved.

	Quarter
	1	2	3	4
Year 1	28100	14600	23600	50360
Year 2	40280	21000	22680	83040
Year 3	342480	19440	35840	82240

Values from Birdstk