Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman are famous for their work on cognitive fallacies that we all...
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Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman are famous for their work on cognitive fallacies that we all tend to commit repeatedly. One is what they call the conjunction fallacy. The most famous illustration of this fallacy is the "Linda Problem." Tversky and Kahneman (1983) gave participants the following description: "Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations." Participants were then asked to rank the probability of several possible descriptions of Linda today. Two of them are "bank teller" and "bank teller and active in the feminist movement." More than 80% ranked the second description as more likely. Explain why this violates the concepts of probability. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman are famous for their work on cognitive fallacies that we all tend to commit repeatedly. One is what they call the conjunction fallacy. The most famous illustration of this fallacy is the "Linda Problem." Tversky and Kahneman (1983) gave participants the following description: "Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations." Participants were then asked to rank the probability of several possible descriptions of Linda today. Two of them are "bank teller" and "bank teller and active in the feminist movement." More than 80% ranked the second description as more likely. Explain why this violates the concepts of probability.
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The conjunction fallacy occurs when people judge the probability of two events occurring together to ... View the full answer
Related Book For
Introductory Statistics Exploring The World Through Data
ISBN: 9780321978271
2nd Edition
Authors: Robert Gould, Colleen Ryan
Posted Date:
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