ANSWER 3.4.5

Given the following information:

Most likely

duration Predecessor a m b TE Var

A 6 days none 3 6 9

B 6 days A 4 6 10

C 8 days A 2 8 8

D 4 days B 1 4 5

E 9 days B, C 3 9 15

F 4 days D 3 4 5

G 4 days E 1 4 7 H 8 days F,G 2 8 14

Complete the following TASK SENSITIVITY STEPS on the attached sheet

1. Prepare WBS and Network Diagram
2. Redo Task Times (Optimistic/ Most Likely/ Pessimistic),
   1. calculate TE and Variance

TE= (a+4m+b)/6 Variance= ((b-a)/6)²

2. redo Network Diagram (with TE and Variance)

3. Determine likelihood
   1. project will take longer than the critical path (use 36 days)
   2. project will take less than the critical path (use 31 days)

Z = ( D - u ) / a ² where:

Z = Z score

D = desired time of the path in question

u = expected time along the path in question

the denominator is the square root of the sum of variances along the path in question

4. If you want to be XX% sure the project will be done within a certain amount of time (use 85%)

5. Calculate the likelihood that each non-critical path will take as long (or longer) than the critical path.