Answer ALL the questions in this section.

QUESTION $1(40$ Marks$)$

$1\mathrm{.}1$ As highlighted in the case study, making decisions in the face of uncertainty is challenging, particularly

during a pandemic. Examine how quantitative risk models can be of significance to planners. Make use of

relevant examples.

$(20$ marks$)$

$1\mathrm{.}2$ In light of the case study provided, demonstrate the primary reasons why the use of modelling

techniques should be utilised in managing the COVID$19$ crisis and other related risk occurrences.

$(20$ marks$)$

SECTION B $[60$ MARKS$]$

Answer ANY THREE $(3)$ questions in this section.

QUESTION $2(20$ Marks$)$

The Managing Director of First Mutual Bank Limited a leading financial institution in Southern Africa has requested you to

provide a detailed report in which you critically discuss what scenario$-$based planning entails and its appropriateness for the

banking sector. Your response should be in the context of risk modelling.

QUESTION $3(20$ Marks$)$

African Bank Limited, a retail bank based in Midrand, South Africa, employs a Value at Risk $($VaR$)$ model to estimate

potential losses in its investment portfolio over a two$-$year period with a $95\%$ confidence level. As an expert risk consultant,

illustrate the importance of this model and describe the different methodologies that can be used for its calculation,

providing relevant examples to support your explanation.