Question: answer must be excel with formulas The Lake Placid Town Council decided to build a new community center to be used for conventions, concerts, and
- answer must be excel with formulas
- The Lake Placid Town Council decided to build a new community center to be used for conventions, concerts, and other public events, but considerable controversy surrounds the appropriate size. Many influential citizens want a large center that would be a showcase for the area. But the mayor feels that if demand does not support such a center, the community will lose a large amount of money. To provide structure for the decision process, the council narrowed the building alternatives to three sizes: small, medium, and large. Everybody agreed that the critical factor in choosing the best size is the number of people who will want to use the new facility. A regional planning consultant provided demand estimates under three scenarios: worst case, base case, and best case. The worst-case scenario corresponds to a situation in which tourism drops substantially; the base-case scenario corresponds to a situation in which Lake Placid continues to attract visitors at current levels; and the best-case scenario corresponds to a substantial increase in tourism. The consultant has provided probability assessments of 0.25, 0.60, and 0.15 for the worst-case, base-case, and best-case scenarios, respectively. The town council suggested using net cash flow over a 5-year planning horizon as the criterion for deciding on the best size. The following projections of net cash flow (in thousands of dollars) for a 5-year planning horizon have been developed. All costs, including the consultants fee, have been included.
|
| Demand Scenario | ||
| Center Size | Worst-Case | Base-Case | Best-Case |
| Small | 300 | 500 | 620 |
| Medium | -250 | 670 | 830 |
| Large | -400 | 580 | 980 |
| Demand Probability | 0.25 | 0.60 | 0.15 |
a.) What decision should Lake Placid make according to the maximin criterion?
b.) What decision should Lake Placid make according to the minimax regret criterion? Make sure to show your regret values for each demand-center size combination. Answers with no regret calculations will not receive full credit.
c.) What decision should Lake Placid make according to the maximum EMV criterion? Make sure to show your EMV computations for each decision alternative. Answers with no EMV computations will not receive full credit.
d.) Compute the expected value of perfect information. Do you think it would be worth trying to obtain additional information concerning which scenario is likely to occur? [
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